Don’t Count Martin Out In Senate Runoff

publication date: Nov 8, 2008

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author/source: John Fredericks / STAFF

By John Fredericks / STAFF

Forget about trying to handicap the runoff for U.S. Senate. There are just too many capricious variables and unknowns in this race. The good news for Jim Martin (D) and his enthusiastic band of indefatigable supporters is they have lived to fight on for yet another month. Their campaign has been left for road kill several times, and they manage to keep fighting back. They are like the cork that you keep submerging – and it just keeps popping back up.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
While all conventional wisdom favors a Saxby Chambliss (R) victory for the December 2 run-off, nothing about this race has been conventional. What Chambliss has going for him is pretty powerful, though. He has more money in the bank, and is likely to have a considerable spending edge over Martin in the three weeks of campaigning that now remain.

He is likely to pick up a majority of the Allan Buckley votes, who ran as a Libertarian.

Georgia went for McCain by nearly 200,000 votes, and it is unclear if Martin can rally some of the Obama voters to return to the polls, especially because so many of them were younger, first time ballot-casters. Chambliss did actually defeat Martin by 110,000 votes, and he has the historical advantage of “buyers remorse” where some voters who might lean to Martin may be fearful of a huge Democrat Senate majority. They may prefer more of a balance of power at the Federal level. And then you have the 1992 “Coverdell Effect.”

THE COVERDELL EFFECT
In 1992 incumbent Senator Wyche Fowler (D) beat back a stiff challenge by Paul Coverdell (R) and carried the state, but failed to break the 50 percent threshold. Bill Clinton was elected President, and actually carried Georgia. Clinton came to Georgia to campaign for Coverdell and raised some considerable cash for him. But Coverdell swamped Fowler in the run-off in what was considered a huge upset at the time.

Many Georgia voters who supported Clinton and Fowler in the general election switched their support to Coverdell, and exit polls showed a fear of giving Clinton too much power in the Senate. On paper, the same dynamics favor a Chambliss victory in this run-off.

THE BAILOUT AND OBAMA
Much of Martin’s campaign has been focused on Chambliss’ support of the bailout bill, but that is fast becoming yesterday’s news. He is now changing tactics, and appears to be emphasizing state and national job loss statistics. He blasted Chambliss on the new unemployment statistics released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, which showed that 240,000 Americans lost their jobs in October, while the jobless rate rose to 6.5 percent, the highest its been since March 1994.

Martin said, “The middle class has been suffering for far too long under the failed policies of Saxby Chambliss that give billions of dollars to companies that ship our jobs overseas and even more in handouts to Wall Street. Today's unemployment report is just further evidence that Saxby Economics has failed Georgia.”

His campaign operatives have indicated that President-elect Obama will visit Georgia to stump for him at least once, and his presence should bring both money and votes to Martin. Whether Obama’s visit will aid Martin or backfire on him, like Clinton’s did to Fowler in 1992, is anyone’s guess.

CHAMBLISS BANKING ON STATE’S CONSERVATIVE BENT
Chambliss seemed to find his legs in the closing days of the campaign. His speeches were crisper, and he demonstrated a renewed spring in his step during his marathon 13-day bus tour around the state. He finally got off the defense and he successfully rallied his core support base. Chambliss will be emphasizing Obama’s tax plan, supported by Martin, and the Obama promise of a 10-month Iraq withdrawal timetable.

These are themes that increased his lead in the last two weeks of the race, and gave McCain a comfortable win. No doubt he will also remind Georgia voters of Senate Majority leader Harry Reid and U.S. Speaker Nancy’s Pelosi’s liberal voting records, which is anathema to a majority of Georgia’s populace. Martin will not have the benefit of the early voters either, which denied Chambliss the out-right win he was closing in on Tuesday night.

Chambliss said, “With Barack Obama in the White House and the Congress led by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats see this race as one step closer to a filibuster-proof Senate. We cannot let that happen.”

FINAL ANALYSIS
If you play the odds, Chambliss should win the run-off by a comfortable margin. What worked for Martin in his run-off against Vernon Jones may be his biggest campaign bugaboo this time. Like Jones found out, getting your new voters out for a second dance is a very tough proposition.